Market commentary equities: Shifting equity factor dynamics between AI, style rotation and geopolitics

Equity markets have shifted into a more complex regime in early 2026, moving beyond the narrow, AI-led leadership that characterised the previous year. Market behaviour is becoming more differentiated, with returns increasingly driven by dispersion rather than concentration.

While the structural AI theme remains firmly in place, investors are becoming more discerning, placing greater emphasis on earnings visibility and the ability to translate investment into returns. At the same time, a more uncertain geopolitical backdrop is reinforcing the importance of resilience in portfolio construction.

Quoniam has seen areas such as its Global MinVol strategies benefit from this market disruption, as they perform particularly well during heightened market uncertainty. Companies that have performed well due to their pricing power and strong balance sheets are also present in our strategies. Our quality and value factor models include earnings-related, profitability and accounting metrics, which help us identify exposure to these types of companies.

From 2025’s AI momentum to 2026’s style shift

The central market story of early 2026 is not the end of AI, but the end of AI as the only dominant driver. In 2025, investors rewarded duration, growth and index concentration. The prevailing trade was straightforward: own the perceived winners of generative AI, particularly large U.S. technology platforms and semiconductor leaders, with multiple expansion doing much of the work.

The opening phase of 2026 looks different. The MSCI Style Indices for late 2025 into early 2026 show a clear rotation. In the MSCI World Index, enhanced value, small cap, minimum volatility and dividend multi-factor outperformed, while growth and momentum lagged. This pattern suggests that markets have become more valuation-sensitive and less willing to rely on a narrow group of expensive growth names.

This backdrop is ideal for a systematic, multi-factor asset manager that implements strategies through highly diversified portfolios.

Regionally, the picture is consistent but nuanced. Europe has shown a more defensive tilt, with minimum volatility and income-oriented strategies leading. Emerging markets have been stronger from a cyclical perspective, supported by value and selective momentum. Despite regional differences, the common signal is clear: the concentrated growth regime of 2025 has broadened into a more differentiated market environment.

This shift implies that equity returns in 2026 are likely to be driven more by cross-sectional dispersion than by index-level concentration. Active positioning, valuation discipline and style diversification should therefore become more important.

As a multi-factor asset manager, we ensure that our portfolios are diversified, avoiding concentration risks. Using our models, we identify companies with the greatest exposure to various factors and styles, which should serve us well in this more dispersed market environment.

AI is moving from narrative to delivery

The AI theme remains the most important structural force in equities, but its role is evolving. In 2025, AI functioned primarily as a narrative that lifted a wide range of related equities. In 2026, that narrative is increasingly being tested by economic reality.

The scale of planned investment — with roughly $650 billion in expected spending — underscores the magnitude of the cycle. However, markets are shifting focus from who is investing to who is generating returns on that investment. The key distinction going forward is likely to be between infrastructure providers and companies able to monetise AI effectively.

As a result, 2026 appears to be a transition year. AI is not fading; it is maturing. This favors firms with clearer earnings visibility, stronger pricing power and credible returns on capital. At Quoniam, we implement these characteristics by overweighting companies with superior earnings, improving profitability, and ensuring robust balance sheet quality. The market may also lead to a broader set of beneficiaries, including industrials, utilities and software companies linked to real-world adoption.

Geopolitics and energy: A more uncertain backdrop

Geopolitical risks involving Iran and the wider region have reinforced an already shifting macro backdrop. While market reactions have moderated at times, the earlier disruptions to energy infrastructure and transport routes — including the Strait of Hormuz — highlighted how quickly supply risks can reprice.

Oil prices have experienced periods of sharp increases followed by only partial reversals, reflecting alternating phases of escalation and de-escalation. Even without a sustained supply shock, the episode has introduced a higher structural risk premium into energy markets.

The key implication is not only the level of energy prices, but the persistence of uncertainty. This complicates the disinflation narrative and may constrain the pace of monetary easing. For equity markets, this particularly affects long-duration growth assets, whose valuations remain sensitive to interest rates.

In that sense, geopolitical developments reinforce the broader style rotation already visible in the data: away from expensive duration exposure and toward more resilient, cash-generative segments of the market.

Against this backdrop, MinVol strategies perform particularly well. Investors who fear ‘more of the same’ could consider allocating to this type of strategy as a hedge against this type of market environment.

What this means for the rest of 2026

The most likely path for the remainder of 2026 is a broader and more volatile market regime. AI should remain a structural driver of earnings growth, but its equity impact is becoming more selective and dependent on execution.

At the same time, style dispersion is unlikely to fade quickly. The observed rotation toward value, income and minimum volatility are no longer supported only by valuation dynamics but also by a more uncertain macro and geopolitical environment.

If energy markets remain fragile and inflation expectations less stable, these styles could continue to show relative resilience versus expensive growth segments.

Regionally, Europe may remain more relevant in a less concentrated market environment, while emerging markets could benefit from cyclical dynamics, albeit with continued exposure to commodity and geopolitical risks.

Conclusion

The equity market in 2026 is not abandoning AI. It is moving beyond a one-dimensional AI trade into a more complex regime, shaped by style rotation, monetisation discipline and geopolitical uncertainty.

That is the key difference versus 2025. Last year rewarded concentration and narrative. This year increasingly rewards selectivity, valuation awareness and resilience. Within the Quoniam multi-factor approach, investors get exposure to all these elements through our diversified portfolios.

Put simply, 2025 rewarded concentration. 2026 is rewarding balance.