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The Iran war has led to higher inflation and interest rates, while the further outlook remains unpredictable given erratic US policy. In this environment, credit spreads have reacted with surprising stability. Systematic credit factors were able to generate slight gains overall, as Dr Harald Henke, Principal Investment Strategist Fixed Income, explains.

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Oil price increases are often seen as supportive for energy credit. Our analysis shows a more complex reality: The impact depends less on the price move itself and more on what drives it. Distinguishing between supply- and demand-driven shocks reveals fundamentally different credit outcomes across energy sub-sectors.

Geopolitical tensions are hitting markets at a time when traditional diversification is becoming less reliable. As multiple risk factors move in tandem, portfolios can come under pressure across asset classes. MinRisk strategies address this challenge by focusing on what matters most: systematically controlling downside risk and improving portfolio resilience in periods of elevated uncertainty.

At the start of the year, the conflict in the Middle East had a noticeable impact on the capital markets. Rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and higher credit risks are the result. Dr Harald Henke, Principal Investment Strategist Fixed Income, analyses what the market reactions reveal about inflation, the economy and current market positioning.

Rising oil prices are often seen as a headwind for credit markets—but their effect on spreads is far from uniform. What matters is not just the shock itself, but the broader financial backdrop. This context is key to understanding the current reaction of credit spreads to the Iran-related oil surge.

Do credit spreads contain early warning signals during technology-driven equity booms? A comparison of the Dotcom era and the current AI cycle shows that spreads primarily signal financial fragility in stress regimes – not valuation excess.

Do oil price shocks push bond yields higher—or lower? Historical evidence shows that the answer depends less on the shock itself than on the macroeconomic regime in which it occurs. Understanding this distinction is key to interpreting the current market reaction to the Iran-related oil shock.

The corporate bond markets in 2025 were characterised by volatility in March and April, followed by a rally for the rest of the year that brought spreads down to relatively low levels. Dr Harald Henke, Principal Investment Strategist Fixed Income, examines how systematic credit factors performed in 2025 and what can be expected for factor performance in 2026 in the current market environment of low spreads.

Comparing fixed income performance is more complicated than it appears. Differences in duration, spread or credit risk can dominate returns, making it difficult to tell whether apparent outperformance reflects genuine security selection or simply higher risk exposure.